Let me preface this blog with the following statement:
I hope and pray that I'm wrong. I'm not going to talk about what I want to happen, I'm going to talk about what is most likely to happen. Also, don't shoot the messenger. I'm not making this up. I'm going based on facts, figures, and the history that will haunt this team just like it will invariably haunt my dreams tonight.
So now, I'll say it.
Goodbye, Super Bowl. Hello 2005 Playoffs.
There, I said it. I'm not upset because we're not perfect anymore. Obviously 16-0 is much less important than a Super Bowl. That goes without saying. I'm not a fan of the naysayers who claim that perfection and a Super Bowl are exclusive events. We could go 19-0 and I wish Caldwell would give the players that chance, but that's not why I'm upset.
I'm not upset about the score, I'm upset about watching Curtis Painter replace the greatest quarterback to ever play the game when we were up five. Then again when we were down three. Then again when we were down six. So on and so forth. If Peyton blew the lead, I'd be disappointed, but he didn't get that chance. Peyton was pulled, and unless we were resting him so he can put in a full game at Buffalo, it's likely that we've seen the last Colts win of the season.
It kills me to say that, but it's not me talking, it's history. Since Peyton was drafted, we've made the playoffs nine times, now ten. Let's let that sink in. In 12 years, we have missed the playoffs twice. Spoiled much? Here's the issue. Nine times we've had the chance to win the Super Bowl, and we're 1-8 in that quest. That's not nearly as bad as it sounds, but I'd argue that we would've won more championships had it not been for our fetish for resting our starters late in the season. Granted, it's conventional wisdom to rest your starters once you have "nothing to play for," but, just like every girlfriend you've ever had, the Colts' high precision offense isn't a light switch that can be turned on and off at your pleasure. You can't rest Peyton and company for one, two, even three weeks and expect them to be able to come out and take on an elite NFL team in a must-win scenario.
Calling our offense high precision and claiming that resting our starters is all hearsay, right? It's just like Pizza Hut calling itself "America's Favorite Pizza," right?
Wrong. This isn't opinion, folks, it's fact.
Pop quiz: When the Colts rested their starters at the end of the regular season, how many playoff games have they won?
Give up?
One.
One playoff game.
In the Peyton Manning era, we're 1-5 when resting our starters at the end of the season.
When we've played our starters through the end of the season, we're 6-3, including a Super Bowl.
So what's stopping us? The fear of our golden boy getting hurt? Peyton Manning?
Pop Quiz: How many meaningful snaps has Peyton Manning missed due to injury in his career?
Give up?
One.
I'd venture a guess that you could break both of Peyton's legs and cut off both of his hands and he'd still be on the field warming up expecting to play. He's not going anywhere. So let's go with the statistics here. Before this season, he had taken 10,691 snaps and missed one due to injury. So assuming that this is the probability of him getting hurt, there's a 1/10,692 chance that Peyton would get injured on any given snap. Theres a 1/6 chance that we'll lose any given game in the playoffs this year if we rest our starters. If we play through, there's a 2/3 chance that we win any given playoff game. That means we are four times as likely to win a playoff game if we play our starters at almost no risk to our starters.
Meaningless game? I say it had Super implications.
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Tim, once again, you've hit the nail right on the head. I hope you're wrong, but I know you. You'll be the first guy to say I told you so if you were right, but you'll also be the first to apologize if you're wrong.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to post a correction: There's a 1/6 chance of us WINNING any given playoff game if we rest our starters, not losing.
ReplyDeleteMy question is why play the starters for 2 1/2 quarters? That's too long just to keep them in rhythm. If you're going to play them in the second half, you might as well play them the whole time and win the game. Stupid and irresponsible in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteIt's so sad because watching the footage that I saw? Which was clips AFTER the game (stupid California....) You could tell Peyton still really wanted to play in the fact that he kept his helmet on. Props to him though for his interview after the game. He'd never say anything bad about anyone yet he wasn't given the chance. I'm not that mad that we blew a chance at a perfect season? But I'm mad for the players. They've worked so hard this season to establish themselves as a well-respected team, more so than we already are, and to have that all placed into the hands of a rookie against a solid defense.... I don't even know what to say. All we can do now is hope
ReplyDeleteTim, great facts. Love your thoughts, I agree completely with you. However, might still be a chance that Caldwell learns from this game / mistake, and might look back on the situation in a different manner (maybe he's learned a lesson from this game). Basically what I'm saying is that it'll be interesting to see if he does the same against the Bills by resting the starters, or if he's decided against it. Something to think about. I know there's nothing to play for as far as a perfect season, but I'm sure the same facts that you pointed out as far as resting the starters is all going through his head right now. You think he'll sit the starters for the Buffalo game like he did against the Jets.
ReplyDeleteHe has to rest the starters now. If he plays them for more than a few possessions people will give him more hell for the Jets game.
ReplyDelete